Enovos Forecasting Electricity Prices (EnoForcE)

EnoForcE enhances continuous intraday electricity price forecasting by merging weather, price, and production data to optimize renewable energy trading.

The project at a glance

Start date:

01 Jul 2022
Duration in months:

36
Funding:

Enovos
Principal Investigator(s):

Gilbert FRIDGEN

About

The EnoForcE project aims to enhance continuous intraday electricity price forecasting in response to the challenges posed by the growing use of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power. Integrating these sources into the power grid often leads to forecasting errors, creating imbalances between predicted and actual energy production. Short-term power trading, for example in Germany’s continuous intraday market, is crucial for addressing these imbalances. This market allows trading until just minutes before power delivery and offers opportunities for profitable trading and effective risk management through accurate and reliable price forecasts. EnoForcE will develop a comprehensive dataset by combining various data sources, including Germany-wide solar and wind forecasts, real-time EPEX intraday prices, and production data from Enovos. The project will use this dataset to identify key explanatory variables and train forecasting models. These models, leveraging historical price data and exogenous variables like weather forecasts and power imbalances, aim to produce precise price forecasts. The project will then use these forecasts to develop and implement effective trading strategies, optimizing renewable energy trading in the continuous intraday market.

Organisation and Partners

Digital Financial Services and Cross-Organisational Digital Transformations Research Group (FINATRAX)
Interdisciplinary Centre for Security, Reliability and Trust (SnT)