With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg.
Department of Finance Lunch Seminar with Prof. Vladimir Asriyan, CREI & BSE
”The Macroeconomics of Firm Forecasts”
Speaker: Prof. Vladimir Asriyan
DATE: Thursday, 5 October 2023
TIME: 12.15 – 13.30
Abstract:
We document a systematic increase in firms’ ability to forecast their future prospects (e.g., revenues) across time. We show that this increase is largely accounted for by an increase in the firm size distribution. Existing models of firm heterogeneity do not account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of information choice, which is consistent with this evidence. We show that firms’ size-dependent incentives to use “data-driven decision-making” can rationalize the size-uncertainty relationship. We illustrate the macroeconomic consequences of this relationship in a standard heterogeneous firms model. We show that the welfare consequences of the documented rise in “data-driven decision making” are substantial, and they are primarily driven by a decline in input misallocation.
The seminar will be held in-person.
Venue:
University of Luxembourg
Weicker Building
4 Rue Alphonse Weicker
2721 Luxembourg
Please note that cold lunch will be provided for registered participants only.
This event is Supported by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (2022/17573036)