Prof. Michel Beine, a full professor specialised in international economics, and Dr. Andreas Vortisch, a postdoctoral researcher, both from the Department of Economics and Management, have co-authored a significant working paper for CESifo titled “The Impact of a Possible Trump Reelection on Mexican Immigration Pressures in Alternative Countries“.
Their research, in collaboration with Prof. Michel Bierlaire, Dr. Evangelos Paschalidis (both at EPFL), and Prof. Silvia Varotto (ENTPE), exploits data from the Gallup World Poll Surveys.
Their work reveals that the disapproval of US leadership under then-President Trump diminished the country’s attractiveness as an immigration destination among respondents in Mexico.
The researchers use a cross-nested logit model to allow for heterogeneous substitution patterns between alternative locations. Applying this approach, they simulate the impact of a Trump reelection based on different scenarios for this shift in disapproval. They find that a Trump reelection would lead to a higher number of stayers in Mexico and increased immigration pressures on countries such as Canada, the UK, Germany, Spain, and France.
Moreover, a Trump reelection would likely result in a decrease in the skill level of Mexican immigrants to the US, while simultaneously boosting the migration of skilled workers to these alternative destinations.
This research is fully funded under the MIGDCM project by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) as part of their International Core program.