Event

Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis

  • Conférencier  Emil Verner – Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management

  • Lieu

    Luxembourg School of Finance JFK Building 29,Avenue J.F Kennedy L-1855 Luxembourg

    LU

  • Thème(s)
    Finance

We examine the real economic consequences of a sudden increase in household

debt burdens by exploiting spatial variation in exposure to household

foreign currency debt during Hungary’s late-2008 currency crisis. The

revaluation of debt burdens leads to higher default rates and a collapse

in spending. These responses translate into a worse local recession and

depressed house prices. A 10 point increase in debt-to-income raises the

unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points, driven by employment losses

at non-exporting rms. Consistent with demand externalities of debt –

nancing, regional foreign currency debt has negative spillovers on nearby

borrowers without foreign currency debt.