Lunchseminar in Economics: Immigration, Science, and Innovation: Evidence from the Quota Acts

In 1921 and 1924, the United States first adopted nationality-based immigration quotas to stem the inflow of low-skilled Eastern and Southern Europeans (ESE) and preserve the “Nordic” character of its population. This paper investigates whether these quotas inadvertently discouraged ESE-born immigrant scientists. Hand-collected data on the birth place, year, immigration, education, and employment histories of more than 80,000 American scientists reveal a dramatic decline in the arrival of ESE-born immigrant scientists, with an estimated 33 missing ESE-born scientists per year. To examine how this decline affected US science and invention, we first compare changes in patenting by US scientists in the pre-quota fields of ESE-born scientists with changes in other fields in which US scientists were active inventors. Methodologically, we apply k-means clustering to scientist-level data on research topics to assign each scientists to a research field, and then compare changes in patenting for the pre-quota fields of ESE-born US scientists with the pre-quota fields of other US scientists. Baseline estimates indicate that US scientists produced more than 60 percent fewer additional patents in response to the quotas. Equivalent analyses at the aggregate level of patenting, Indicate a 30 percent decline in US invention overall. This decline in invention persisted through World War II and into the 1960s.