{"id":3784,"date":"2026-03-24T09:54:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T08:54:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fstm-fr\/?post_type=news&p=3784"},"modified":"2026-03-24T09:55:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T08:55:14","slug":"predicting-extreme-weather-and-flood-risk-in-luxembourg","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fstm-fr\/news\/predicting-extreme-weather-and-flood-risk-in-luxembourg\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9vision de m\u00e9t\u00e9o extr\u00eame et des risques d’inondation au Luxembourg"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n

Un nouveau mod\u00e8le de pr\u00e9vision des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames et des risques d’inondation au Luxembourg a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 par Uni.lu et RSS-Hydro<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

La plupart d\u2019entre nous consultons la m\u00e9t\u00e9o pour savoir si nous devons prendre un parapluie ou si le moment est propice \u00e0 une promenade. Pourtant, les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques jouent un r\u00f4le bien plus crucial. Les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames sont de plus en plus fr\u00e9quents en Europe, et le Luxembourg n’\u00e9chappe pas \u00e0 cette tendance. Ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, les \u00e9pisodes de fortes pr\u00e9cipitations et d’inondations, consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme le risque naturel le plus destructeur au Luxembourg, se sont intensifi\u00e9s, causant de graves dommages aux communaut\u00e9s et aux infrastructures. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour y rem\u00e9dier, Prof. Rebecca Teferle<\/a> et son \u00e9quipe ont lanc\u00e9 le projet NPWLux, en collaboration avec RSS-Hydro. Ce projet vise \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper le premier mod\u00e8le de pr\u00e9vision num\u00e9rique du temps (Numerical Weather Prediction – NWP) sp\u00e9cialement con\u00e7u pour le Luxembourg et la Grande R\u00e9gion, afin de fournir des pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 court terme adapt\u00e9es aux conditions locales. Le mod\u00e8le NWP est \u00e9galement coupl\u00e9 \u00e0 un mod\u00e8le de simulation des inondations pour permettre de pr\u00e9voir plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment les zones \u00e0 risque. <\/p>\n\n\n

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\nNWPLx: un syst\u00e8me de pr\u00e9vision optimis\u00e9 pour le Luxembourg<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, le Luxembourg s\u2019appuyait principalement sur des donn\u00e9es m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques europ\u00e9ennes et internationales. Bien que cela soit d\u00e9j\u00e0 utile, un syst\u00e8me sur mesure, dot\u00e9 d\u2019une tr\u00e8s haute r\u00e9solution de mod\u00e8le, permettrait de trouver des solutions adapt\u00e9es au Luxembourg et \u00e0 ses sp\u00e9cificit\u00e9s. NWPLux y contribue en mettant en place un syst\u00e8me de pr\u00e9vision optimis\u00e9 pour la g\u00e9ographie et le contexte hydrologique uniques du pays. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le projet applique un cycle de mise \u00e0 jour rapide (Rapid Update Cycle – RUC) de six heures qui assimile en continu de nouvelles observations, am\u00e9liorant ainsi la pr\u00e9cision des pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 court terme. Pourquoi est-ce important ? Ce syst\u00e8me hybride permet aux autorit\u00e9s locales de surveiller les fortes pr\u00e9cipitations avec une plus grande pr\u00e9cision et d’\u00e9mettre rapidement des alertes en cas d’inondation. En fournissant des informations pr\u00e9coces sur le moment et le lieu o\u00f9 des conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames pourraient se produire, il permet de r\u00e9duire le risque d’inondations et de prot\u00e9ger les communaut\u00e9s et les infrastructures du pays. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nUn syst\u00e8me exploitant le calcul haute performance du Luxembourg<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Au cours des trois derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, Prof. Rebecca Teferle et son \u00e9quipe ont mis en \u0153uvre le syst\u00e8me NWP \u00e0 l\u2019aide du mod\u00e8le open source Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), d\u00e9ploy\u00e9 sur l\u2019infrastructure de calcul haute performance (HPC) du pays. Ce mod\u00e8le couvre le Luxembourg et la Grande R\u00e9gion avec une r\u00e9solution de 1,3 km, et l\u2019Europe avec une r\u00e9solution de 12 km. Il permet ainsi de g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des pr\u00e9visions de temp\u00e9rature et de pr\u00e9cipitations pour chaque carr\u00e9 de 1,3 km au Luxembourg. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Afin d’am\u00e9liorer encore la pr\u00e9cision, les chercheurs ont int\u00e9gr\u00e9 l’assimilation de donn\u00e9es (WRFDA) \u00e0 partir d’observations r\u00e9gionales. Le mod\u00e8le a \u00e9t\u00e9 soigneusement test\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019aide de multiples ensembles de donn\u00e9es, notamment des images satellites, des donn\u00e9es radar et des mesures locales, lors des grandes inondations de 2016, 2018 et 2021, et a montr\u00e9 des am\u00e9liorations nettes dans la pr\u00e9vision des pr\u00e9cipitations et de la temp\u00e9rature. Dans le cadre de l’\u00e9tude de cas de l’inondation de 2021, une simulation sur un mois a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que l’utilisation de donn\u00e9es locales permettait d’am\u00e9liorer consid\u00e9rablement la d\u00e9tection des pr\u00e9cipitations par rapport \u00e0 leur non-utilisation. L’\u00e9quipe a obtenu une am\u00e9lioration de la probabilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9tection (POD) de 8,3 % et une r\u00e9duction substantielle du taux de fausses alarmes (FAR) de 13,7 %. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nLier les pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques aux simulations d’inondations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La compr\u00e9hension des conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques n\u2019est qu\u2019une partie de la gestion des risques d\u2019inondation. Pour \u00e9valuer les impacts potentiels, le syst\u00e8me NWPLux a \u00e9t\u00e9 coupl\u00e9 au mod\u00e8le hydrodynamique LISFLOOD-FP, sp\u00e9cialement adapt\u00e9 au Luxembourg. Cette int\u00e9gration transforme les pr\u00e9visions de pr\u00e9cipitations en simulations du mouvement de l’eau dans les rivi\u00e8res, les vall\u00e9es et les zones urbaines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il en r\u00e9sulte un ensemble de cartes haute r\u00e9solution indiquant l’\u00e9tendue et la profondeur des inondations potentielles, qui fournissent aux d\u00e9cideurs des informations exploitables sur les zones susceptibles d’\u00eatre inond\u00e9es et sur la gravit\u00e9 potentielle de ces inondations. <\/p>\n\n\n

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\n \u201f<\/span>\n L’Universit\u00e9 du Luxembourg m\u00e8ne le d\u00e9veloppement scientifique et la validation du mod\u00e8le WRF et du composant d’assimilation de donn\u00e9es, tandis que RSS-Hydro apporte son expertise en mati\u00e8re de mod\u00e9lisation des inondations et de pr\u00e9visions op\u00e9rationnelles. Ensemble, nous d\u00e9veloppons des outils capables d’aider le Luxembourg \u00e0 se pr\u00e9parer aux futurs d\u00e9fis li\u00e9s au climat.\u201d\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n \n\"\"\n <\/figure><\/div>\n\n
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Prof. Rebecca Teferle <\/p>\n\n\n

Full professor in Geodesy <\/p>\n\n

\n \n \n View profile<\/span>\n <\/span>\n <\/use><\/svg> <\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/figure>\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n

\u00c0 l’avenir, l’objectif est de faire \u00e9voluer NWPLux vers un syst\u00e8me de pr\u00e9vision op\u00e9rationnel. RSS-Hydro pr\u00e9voit d’int\u00e9grer le mod\u00e8le \u00e0 son portefeuille de services afin de proposer des pr\u00e9visions d’inondations en temps quasi r\u00e9el et \u00e0 haute r\u00e9solution pour le Luxembourg, et potentiellement pour l’ensemble de la r\u00e9gion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

De futures opportunit\u00e9s de financement, par exemple via le programme FNR Bridges, pourraient \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es pour soutenir l’\u00e9volution du projet d’une initiative de recherche vers un service pleinement op\u00e9rationnel. <\/p>\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n

NWPLux est financ\u00e9 par le Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) dans le cadre de l\u2019AFR Industrial Fellowship Call 2022 (projet n\u00b0 : 17130773).<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/div><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":325,"featured_media":3790,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"featured_image_focal_point":[],"show_featured_caption":false,"ulux_newsletter_groups":"","uluxPostTitle":"","uluxPrePostTitle":"","_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false},"news-category":[3],"news-topic":[12],"organisation":[42,24],"authorship":[325],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPr\u00e9vision de m\u00e9t\u00e9o extr\u00eame et des risques d'inondation au Luxembourg - 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