{"id":2002,"date":"2023-03-28T15:26:31","date_gmt":"2023-03-28T13:26:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-the-impact-of-a-possible-trump-reelection-on-immigration-pressure-in-alternative-countries\/"},"modified":"2023-03-28T15:26:31","modified_gmt":"2023-03-28T13:26:31","slug":"research-economic-seminar-the-impact-of-a-possible-trump-reelection-on-immigration-pressure-in-alternative-countries","status":"publish","type":"events","link":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-the-impact-of-a-possible-trump-reelection-on-immigration-pressure-in-alternative-countries\/","title":{"rendered":"Research Economic Seminar: The Impact of a Possible Trump Reelection on Immigration Pressure in Alternative Countries"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-free-section section\"><div class=\"container xl:max-w-screen-xl\"><p>When people think about potential destinations for location choice, they may prefer countries along a set of shared characteristics like language, economic structure, governance, or geography. Similarities and substitution effects across these dimensions have often been neglected in migration choice models. We motivate their implementation in discrete choice models, in particular a cross-nested logit, by a case study.<\/p><p>The 2016 US presidential election ended with a rather surprising outcome when Donald J. Trump became the president-elect. Given Trump&rsquo;s controversial rhetoric against Latin American immigrants, and in particular Mexicans, we examine to what extent Mexicans may have reevaluated their migration aspiration which primarily focuses on the US. We apply a difference-in-differences model to gauge the impact of Trump&rsquo;s election on Mexican migration aspiration in the Gallup World Poll to establish the existence of substitution effects. Our results indicate that Mexicans are less likely to state a preference for the US after Trump&rsquo;s inauguration, and instead aspire to move to similar countries, especially Canada. We assess that accounting for substitution across shared characteristics in binary choice models improves statistical properties and inference and enables us to forecast the immigration pressure in alternative destinations.<\/p><p><\/p><\/div><\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AbstractJoint\u00a0 work with Michel Beine, Michel Bierlaire, Evangelos Paschalidis, and Silvia VarottoWhen people think about potential destinations for location choice, they may prefer countries along a set of shared characteristics like language, economic structure, governance, or geography. Similarities and substitution effects across these dimensions have often been neglected in migration choice models. We motivate their implementation in discrete choice models, in particular a cross-nested logit, by a case study.The 2016 US presidential election ended with a rather surprising outcome when Donald J. Trump became the president-elect. Given Trump&rsquo;s controversial rhetoric against Latin American immigrants, and in particular Mexicans, we examine to what extent Mexicans may have reevaluated their migration aspiration which primarily focuses on the US. We apply a difference-in-differences model to gauge the impact of Trump&rsquo;s election on Mexican migration aspiration in the Gallup World Poll to establish the existence of substitution effects. Our results indicate that Mexicans are less likely to state a preference for the US after Trump&rsquo;s inauguration, and instead aspire to move to similar countries, especially Canada. We assess that accounting for substitution across shared characteristics in binary choice models improves statistical properties and inference and enables us to forecast the immigration pressure in alternative destinations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2003,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"featured_image_focal_point":[],"show_featured_caption":false,"ulux_newsletter_groups":"","uluxPostTitle":"","uluxPrePostTitle":"","_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"event_start_date":"2023-04-18 13:00:00","event_end_date":"2023-04-18 14:00:00","event_speaker_name":"Andreas Vortisch, DEM, Universit\u00e9 du Luxembourg","event_speaker_link":"","event_is_online":false,"event_location":"Participation by invitation\r\n","event_street":"","event_location_link":"","event_zip_code":"","event_city":"","event_country":"LU"},"events-topic":[298],"events-type":[],"organisation":[137,100],"authorship":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.3 (Yoast SEO v22.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Research Economic Seminar: The Impact of a Possible Trump Reelection on Immigration Pressure in Alternative Countries - FDEF I Uni.lu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"AbstractJoint\u00a0 work with Michel Beine, Michel Bierlaire, Evangelos Paschalidis, and Silvia VarottoWhen people think about potential destinations for location choice, they may prefer countries along a set of shared characteristics like language, economic structure, governance, or geography. Similarities and substitution effects across these dimensions have often been neglected in migration choice models. We motivate their implementation in discrete choice models, in particular a cross-nested logit, by a case study.The 2016 US presidential election ended with a rather surprising outcome when Donald J. Trump became the president-elect. Given Trump&#039;s controversial rhetoric against Latin American immigrants, and in particular Mexicans, we examine to what extent Mexicans may have reevaluated their migration aspiration which primarily focuses on the US. We apply a difference-in-differences model to gauge the impact of Trump&#039;s election on Mexican migration aspiration in the Gallup World Poll to establish the existence of substitution effects. Our results indicate that Mexicans are less likely to state a preference for the US after Trump&#039;s inauguration, and instead aspire to move to similar countries, especially Canada. We assess that accounting for substitution across shared characteristics in binary choice models improves statistical properties and inference and enables us to forecast the immigration pressure in alternative destinations.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-the-impact-of-a-possible-trump-reelection-on-immigration-pressure-in-alternative-countries\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Research Economic Seminar: The Impact of a Possible Trump Reelection on Immigration Pressure in Alternative Countries\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"AbstractJoint\u00a0 work with Michel Beine, Michel Bierlaire, Evangelos Paschalidis, and Silvia VarottoWhen people think about potential destinations for location choice, they may prefer countries along a set of shared characteristics like language, economic structure, governance, or geography. Similarities and substitution effects across these dimensions have often been neglected in migration choice models. We motivate their implementation in discrete choice models, in particular a cross-nested logit, by a case study.The 2016 US presidential election ended with a rather surprising outcome when Donald J. Trump became the president-elect. Given Trump&#039;s controversial rhetoric against Latin American immigrants, and in particular Mexicans, we examine to what extent Mexicans may have reevaluated their migration aspiration which primarily focuses on the US. We apply a difference-in-differences model to gauge the impact of Trump&#039;s election on Mexican migration aspiration in the Gallup World Poll to establish the existence of substitution effects. Our results indicate that Mexicans are less likely to state a preference for the US after Trump&#039;s inauguration, and instead aspire to move to similar countries, especially Canada. We assess that accounting for substitution across shared characteristics in binary choice models improves statistical properties and inference and enables us to forecast the immigration pressure in alternative destinations.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-the-impact-of-a-possible-trump-reelection-on-immigration-pressure-in-alternative-countries\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FDEF FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/uni.FDEF.lu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/18\/2026\/03\/03111953\/FDEF_SM-Profile_1600x1600px-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-the-impact-of-a-possible-trump-reelection-on-immigration-pressure-in-alternative-countries\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-the-impact-of-a-possible-trump-reelection-on-immigration-pressure-in-alternative-countries\/\",\"name\":\"Research Economic Seminar: The Impact of a Possible Trump Reelection on Immigration Pressure in Alternative Countries - FDEF I Uni.lu\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-the-impact-of-a-possible-trump-reelection-on-immigration-pressure-in-alternative-countries\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-the-impact-of-a-possible-trump-reelection-on-immigration-pressure-in-alternative-countries\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/18\/2023\/03\/research_economic_seminar_the_impact_of_a_possible_trump_reelection_on_immigration_pressure_in_alternative_countries.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-28T13:26:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-28T13:26:31+00:00\",\"description\":\"AbstractJoint\u00a0 work with Michel Beine, Michel Bierlaire, Evangelos Paschalidis, and Silvia VarottoWhen people think about potential destinations for location choice, they may prefer countries along a set of shared characteristics like language, economic structure, governance, or geography. Similarities and substitution effects across these dimensions have often been neglected in migration choice models. We motivate their implementation in discrete choice models, in particular a cross-nested logit, by a case study.The 2016 US presidential election ended with a rather surprising outcome when Donald J. Trump became the president-elect. Given Trump's controversial rhetoric against Latin American immigrants, and in particular Mexicans, we examine to what extent Mexicans may have reevaluated their migration aspiration which primarily focuses on the US. We apply a difference-in-differences model to gauge the impact of Trump's election on Mexican migration aspiration in the Gallup World Poll to establish the existence of substitution effects. Our results indicate that Mexicans are less likely to state a preference for the US after Trump's inauguration, and instead aspire to move to similar countries, especially Canada. 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Similarities and substitution effects across these dimensions have often been neglected in migration choice models. We motivate their implementation in discrete choice models, in particular a cross-nested logit, by a case study.The 2016 US presidential election ended with a rather surprising outcome when Donald J. Trump became the president-elect. Given Trump's controversial rhetoric against Latin American immigrants, and in particular Mexicans, we examine to what extent Mexicans may have reevaluated their migration aspiration which primarily focuses on the US. We apply a difference-in-differences model to gauge the impact of Trump's election on Mexican migration aspiration in the Gallup World Poll to establish the existence of substitution effects. Our results indicate that Mexicans are less likely to state a preference for the US after Trump's inauguration, and instead aspire to move to similar countries, especially Canada. 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