{"id":1443,"date":"2021-05-17T11:48:19","date_gmt":"2021-05-17T09:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-real-time-integrated-learning-and-decision-making-for-deteriorating-systems\/"},"modified":"2021-05-17T11:48:19","modified_gmt":"2021-05-17T09:48:19","slug":"research-economic-seminar-real-time-integrated-learning-and-decision-making-for-deteriorating-systems","status":"publish","type":"events","link":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-fr\/events\/research-economic-seminar-real-time-integrated-learning-and-decision-making-for-deteriorating-systems\/","title":{"rendered":"Research Economic Seminar: Real-Time Integrated Learning and Decision Making for Deteriorating Systems"},"content":{"rendered":"

Unexpected \u00a0failures of equipment \u00a0often \u00a0have \u00a0severe \u00a0consequences \u00a0and costs. Such unexpected \u00a0failures \u00a0can \u00a0be prevented by performing preventive replacement. We study a single component that deteriorates according to a compound Poisson process and fails when the degradation exceeds the failure threshold. Through an online sensor, the degradation can be measured in real-time, but we can only replace the component during planned system downtimes. The degradation parameters vary from one component to the next but cannot be observed directly. They must therefore be learned by observing the real-time degradation signal. We model this situation as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) so that decision making and learning are integrated. We show how all relevant information in the degradation signal can be represented by a three dimensional vector and use that to collapse the original high-dimensional state space of the POMDP.<\/p>

This allows us to tractably compute optimal policies and prove that the optimal policy is a state dependent control limit. The optimal control limit increases with the age of a component, but may decrease as a result of other information in the degradation signal. We demonstrate the value of real-time integrated learning and decision making on a large degradation data set of filaments of interventional X-ray machines and find that integration leads to cost reductions of 10.50% when compared to approaches that do not learn from the real-time signal and 4.28% relative to approaches that separate learning and decision making.<\/p>

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Unexpected \u00a0failures of equipment \u00a0often \u00a0have \u00a0severe \u00a0consequences \u00a0and costs. Such unexpected \u00a0failures \u00a0can \u00a0be prevented by performing preventive replacement. We study a single component that deteriorates according to a compound Poisson process and fails when the degradation exceeds the failure threshold. Through an online sensor, the degradation can be measured in real-time, but we can only replace the component during planned system downtimes. The degradation parameters vary from one component to the next but cannot be observed directly. They must therefore be learned by observing the real-time degradation signal. We model this situation as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) so that decision making and learning are integrated. We show how all relevant information in the degradation signal can be represented by a three dimensional vector and use that to collapse the original high-dimensional state space of the POMDP.This allows us to tractably compute optimal policies and prove that the optimal policy is a state dependent control limit. The optimal control limit increases with the age of a component, but may decrease as a result of other information in the degradation signal. We demonstrate the value of real-time integrated learning and decision making on a large degradation data set of filaments of interventional X-ray machines and find that integration leads to cost reductions of 10.50% when compared to approaches that do not learn from the real-time signal and 4.28% relative to approaches that separate learning and decision making.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1444,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"featured_image_focal_point":[],"show_featured_caption":false,"ulux_newsletter_groups":"","uluxPostTitle":"","uluxPrePostTitle":"","_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"event_start_date":"2021-06-29 13:00:00","event_end_date":"2021-06-29 14:00:00","event_speaker_name":"Melvin Drent, LCL, Universit\u00e9 du Luxembourg","event_speaker_link":"","event_is_online":false,"event_location":"Participation by invitation\r\n\r\nOnline via Webex","event_street":"","event_location_link":"","event_zip_code":"","event_city":"","event_country":"LU"},"events-topic":[298],"events-type":[],"organisation":[137,100],"authorship":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nResearch Economic Seminar: Real-Time Integrated Learning and Decision Making for Deteriorating Systems - FDEF I Uni.lu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Unexpected \u00a0failures of equipment \u00a0often \u00a0have \u00a0severe \u00a0consequences \u00a0and costs. 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