{"id":19171,"date":"2025-04-07T09:18:31","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T07:18:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/?post_type=events&#038;p=19171"},"modified":"2025-04-07T09:21:02","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T07:21:02","slug":"df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny","status":"publish","type":"events","link":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/","title":{"rendered":"DF Lunch Seminar with Guillaume Roussellet (Federal Reserve Bank of NY)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"py-0 wp-block-unilux-blocks-free-section section\"><div class=\"container xl:max-w-screen-xl\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-custom-buttons btn-list\"><li class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-custom-button\"    aria-disabled=\"false\"\n    >\n    <a\n        role=\"link\"\n        aria-disabled=\"false\"\n                    href=\"https:\/\/www.eventbrite.fr\/e\/df-lunch-seminar-w-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny-registration-1312627607509?aff=oddtdtcreator\"\n                target=\"_blank\"\n        class=\"btn btn--primary\"\n            >Register<\/a>\n<\/li>\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-custom-button\"    aria-disabled=\"false\"\n    >\n    <a\n        role=\"link\"\n        aria-disabled=\"false\"\n                    href=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/calendar\"\n                target=\"_self\"\n        class=\"btn btn--secondary\"\n            >Add to calendar<\/a>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-spacer is-spacer-size-sm\"><\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-unilux-blocks-heading\"        id=\"when-long-run-trends-are-unknown-bond-pricing-implications\"\n    >\n<strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>\u201cWhen Long-run Trends are Unknown: Bond Pricing Implications\u201d<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-spacer is-spacer-size-sm\"><\/div>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-unilux-blocks-heading\"        id=\"abstract\"\n    >\nAbstract<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>What macroeconomic insights can the term structure of Treasury yields give us when investors need to disentangle permanent and transitory aggregate shocks? We formulate a macro-finance model where inflation, growth, and the monetary policy rate are driven by a combination of long-run trends and shorter-lived cycles. The representative investor only observes the aggregate macroeconomic variables but not their decomposition in permanent and transitory components, so she performs Bayesian learning. Despite the learning complexity, our model produces closed-form affine Treasury yields formulas. Estimation reveals significant uncertainty about long-term real interest rate estimates, in sharp contrast with those obtained from perfect information models. We find that because the investor confuses trends with cycles when faced with aggregate macroeconomic movements, the yield curve can under or overreact to structural shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-spacer is-spacer-size-sm\"><\/div>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-unilux-blocks-heading\"        id=\"about-the-speaker\"\n    >\nAbout the speaker<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/guillaumeroussellet.quarto.pub\/research.html\">Guillaume Roussellet<\/a> is an Assistant Professor of Finance at McGill University and Research Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-spacer is-spacer-size-sm\"><\/div>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-unilux-blocks-heading\"        id=\"language\"\n    >\nLanguage<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>English.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a free event. Registration is mandatory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cold lunches are provided to registered participants only.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":85,"featured_media":19172,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0,"y":0.32},"show_featured_caption":false,"ulux_newsletter_groups":"","uluxPostTitle":"","uluxPrePostTitle":"","_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"event_start_date":"2025-04-22 12:30:00","event_end_date":"2025-04-22 13:45:00","event_speaker_name":"Guillaume Roussellet","event_speaker_link":"","event_is_online":false,"event_location":"Kirchberg Campus","event_street":"6, rue Richard Couden\u00ad\u00ad\u00adhove-Kalergi","event_location_link":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/en\/about\/campuses\/kirchberg-campus\/","event_zip_code":"1359","event_city":"Luxembourg","event_country":"Luxembourg"},"events-topic":[301],"events-type":[323,322,315],"organisation":[116,101],"authorship":[85],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.3 (Yoast SEO v22.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Predicting Unobserved Individual-level Causal Effects - FDEF I Uni.lu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg. What\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"DF Lunch Seminar with Guillaume Roussellet (Federal Reserve Bank of NY)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg. What\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FDEF EN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/uni.FDEF.lu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-07T07:21:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/AdobeStock_1073009376-scaled.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1463\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/\",\"name\":\"Predicting Unobserved Individual-level Causal Effects - FDEF I Uni.lu\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/AdobeStock_1073009376-scaled.jpeg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-07T07:18:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-04-07T07:21:02+00:00\",\"description\":\"With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg. What\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/AdobeStock_1073009376-scaled.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/AdobeStock_1073009376-scaled.jpeg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1463,\"caption\":\"Financial chart with up trend line graph. Wealth management with risk diversification risk\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/en\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Events\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":4,\"name\":\"DF Lunch Seminar with Guillaume Roussellet (Federal Reserve Bank of NY)\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/\",\"name\":\"FDEF\",\"description\":\"Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance I Uni.lu\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance I University of Luxembourg\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"FDEF - University of Luxembourg I Uni.lu\",\"alternateName\":\"Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/03111918\/FDEF_SM-Profile_1600x1600px-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/03111918\/FDEF_SM-Profile_1600x1600px-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":2560,\"caption\":\"FDEF - University of Luxembourg I Uni.lu\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/uni.FDEF.lu\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/showcase\/fdef-uni-lu\/\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Predicting Unobserved Individual-level Causal Effects - FDEF I Uni.lu","description":"With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg. What","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"DF Lunch Seminar with Guillaume Roussellet (Federal Reserve Bank of NY)","og_description":"With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg. What","og_url":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/","og_site_name":"FDEF EN","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/uni.FDEF.lu","article_modified_time":"2025-04-07T07:21:02+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1463,"url":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/AdobeStock_1073009376-scaled.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/","url":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/","name":"Predicting Unobserved Individual-level Causal Effects - FDEF I Uni.lu","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/AdobeStock_1073009376-scaled.jpeg","datePublished":"2025-04-07T07:18:31+00:00","dateModified":"2025-04-07T07:21:02+00:00","description":"With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg. What","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/AdobeStock_1073009376-scaled.jpeg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/04\/AdobeStock_1073009376-scaled.jpeg","width":2560,"height":1463,"caption":"Financial chart with up trend line graph. Wealth management with risk diversification risk"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-guillaume-roussellet-federal-reserve-bank-of-ny\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/en"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance","item":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Events","item":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":4,"name":"DF Lunch Seminar with Guillaume Roussellet (Federal Reserve Bank of NY)"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/","name":"FDEF","description":"Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance I Uni.lu","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance I University of Luxembourg","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#organization","name":"FDEF - University of Luxembourg I Uni.lu","alternateName":"Faculty of Law, Economics and Finance","url":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/03111918\/FDEF_SM-Profile_1600x1600px-scaled.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/03111918\/FDEF_SM-Profile_1600x1600px-scaled.jpg","width":2560,"height":2560,"caption":"FDEF - University of Luxembourg I Uni.lu"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/uni.FDEF.lu","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/showcase\/fdef-uni-lu\/"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/events\/19171"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/events"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/events"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/85"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19171"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/events\/19171\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19174,"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/events\/19171\/revisions\/19174"}],"wp:authorship":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/85"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19172"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"events-topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/events-topic?post=19171"},{"taxonomy":"events-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/events-type?post=19171"},{"taxonomy":"organisation","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/organisation?post=19171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}