{"id":8152,"date":"2021-04-28T08:19:02","date_gmt":"2021-04-28T08:19:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/website.prod.unilu.spikeseed.cloud\/en\/news\/country-specific-covid-19-incidences-a-biased-perspective\/"},"modified":"2021-04-28T08:19:02","modified_gmt":"2021-04-28T08:19:02","slug":"country-specific-covid-19-incidences-a-biased-perspective","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/en\/news\/country-specific-covid-19-incidences-a-biased-perspective\/","title":{"rendered":"Country-specific COVID-19 incidences &#8211; A biased perspective"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-free-section section\"><div class=\"container xl:max-w-screen-xl\"><p>Incidence levels \u2013 the number of new COVID-19 cases within a given time period \u2013 are currently widely used as indicators to define high-risk areas.<\/p><p>However, the differences observed between neighbouring countries and regions in Europe are greatly influenced by differences in testing strategies. An article published on 23 April in <i>The Lancet Regional Health \u2013 Europe<\/i> highlights the need for coherent data and a more nuanced approach to allow meaningful comparisons between countries. Written collaboratively by Prof. <a href=\"https:\/\/wwwen.uni.lu\/lcsb\/people\/paul_wilmes\" target=\"_self\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Paul Wilmes<\/a>, spokesperson for the <a href=\"https:\/\/researchluxembourg.lu\/covid-19-taskforce\/\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Research Luxembourg COVID-19 Task Force<\/a>, Dr Jo\u00ebl Mossong and Dr Thomas Dentzer from the Luxembourg Health Directorate, this article also summarises some of the currently available figures for Luxembourg and the surrounding European countries.<\/p><p>Since the beginning of the pandemic, Luxembourg has pursued a broad testing strategy including mass screening of its population and systematic contact tracing: on average every resident has been tested at least 3.6 times. \u201cAt 2.6%, the country\u2019s overall positivity rate \u2013 the percentage of all tests performed that are actually positive \u2013 has remained comparatively low,\u201d details Dr Jo\u00ebl Mossong, epidemiologist at the Luxembourg Health Directorate. \u201cMeanwhile rates in other European countries vary, between 5.6% in neighbouring Germany and 17% in The Netherlands where test coverage is relatively limited.\u201d<\/p><p>In addition to large-scale testing, Luxembourg has also performed a representative serological sampling on a weekly basis among its residents since last November. The data up until 15 January 2021 indicates a seroprevalence of 7.7%, which by extrapolation to the entire population corresponds to 48,264 expected cases. \u201cCompared to the 48,630 cases recorded until this date, this suggests that case detection in Luxembourg is very high, with only around 0.8% of the cases having gone undetected,\u201d explains Dr Thomas Dentzer, Chief Strategy Officer at the Luxembourg Health Directorate. While this type of information is missing for most countries, similar data indicate that in contrast 62.3% of cases might have gone undetected in Belgium.<\/p><p>Overall, these figures highlight that country-specific COVID-19 incidence levels might be more a reflection of different case ascertainment rates than reflect actual epidemiological risks for infection with SARS-CoV-2. Given the inherent biases linked to differing test strategies and to account for the disparities in testing coverage, a more nuanced approach not solely based on incidence levels would help to more accurately define high risk countries and regions. \u201cPositivity rates, hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) occupancies, as well as data on seroprevalence should be factored into more inclusive risk assessments,\u201d stresses Prof. Paul Wilmes from the University of Luxembourg. The impacts of differing vaccination strategies and frequencies of new virus variants will also need to be taken into account. \u201cThe availability of coherent data about different countries, collected and shared in a well-coordinated, pan-European manner, will be fundamental to allow meaningful comparisons in the coming weeks and months,\u201d concludes Prof. Wilmes.<\/p>\n<h5 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-unilux-blocks-heading\"        id=\"press-release-by-the-university-of-luxembourg-and-the-luxembourg-ministry-of-health\"\n    >\nPress release by the University of Luxembourg and the Luxembourg Ministry of Health.<\/h5>\n<p>Reference: Paul Wilmes, Jo\u00ebl Mossong, Thomas G. Dentzer, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S2666776221000934\" target=\"_self\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Generalisation of COVID-19 incidences provides a biased view of the actual epidemiological situation<\/a>, The Lancet Regional Health &#8211; Europe, Volume 5, 2021.<\/p><p><\/p><p><strong>\u00a9 Photo: Science Relations<\/strong><\/p><\/div><\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Incidence levels \u2013 the number of new COVID-19 cases within a given time period \u2013 are currently widely used as indicators to define high-risk areas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":8153,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"featured_image_focal_point":[],"show_featured_caption":false,"ulux_newsletter_groups":"","uluxPostTitle":"","uluxPrePostTitle":"","_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false},"news-category":[10],"news-topic":[26],"organisation":[209,233],"authorship":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.3 (Yoast SEO v22.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Country-specific COVID-19 incidences - A biased perspective - University of Luxembourg<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Incidence levels \u2013 the number of new COVID-19 cases within a given time period \u2013 are currently widely used as indicators to define high-risk areas.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/en\/news\/country-specific-covid-19-incidences-a-biased-perspective\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Country-specific COVID-19 incidences - A biased perspective\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Incidence levels \u2013 the number of new COVID-19 cases within a given time period \u2013 are currently widely used as indicators to define high-risk areas.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/en\/news\/country-specific-covid-19-incidences-a-biased-perspective\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"UNI EN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/uni.lu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2021\/04\/les_taux_d_incidence_de_la_covid_19_par_pays_une_vision_biaisee.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/en\/news\/country-specific-covid-19-incidences-a-biased-perspective\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/en\/news\/country-specific-covid-19-incidences-a-biased-perspective\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\",\"@id\":\"\"},\"headline\":\"Country-specific COVID-19 incidences &#8211; 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